I live in downtown Minneapolis. Every now and then I see a yellow and red pedal-pub trundle down our street. Music is playing and people are singing and clinking their glasses. It looks jolly—almost as if there were no pandemic.

The people who party in bars and cluster in crowds also act as if there were no such thing as COVID. Most wear no masks and seem to have no thought about the risk to themselves or to the people they later meet.

I understand. We are all tired of life-with-COVID. We want to forget about it and get back to normal—to go out for a nice meal, to get together with friends and family, to party…

In my community, restaurants and stores are opening.  I wear a mask when I go out for my daily walks. But the people I pass, whether they’re walking, running or biking, almost never have masks on their faces, and they don’t seem to care if they come within a few inches of my face.

Here’s the thing: COVID is insidious. It’s highly contagious, affects people in very different ways, and can be deadly for some. You can go a long time without catching this disease and start to wonder—why do I need to be so careful?

It’s a question of PROBABILITY—of weighing risks. This is true of life in general. Jay-walking is a risk each time you do it. If you jay-walk once, you might be fine. If you routinely jay-walk and don’t bother to look for oncoming cars, you greatly increase the odds that your risky behavior could lead to a bad outcome.

Probability is a difficult concept to understand. It’s not cause and direct effect. If my hand touches a flame, I’ll feel the burn. But if I do risky things, I might or might not get burnt.

In COVID-time, we play the odds with everything we do—shopping at a supermarket, eating at a restaurant, sitting in a classroom, gathering in a crowd. These are all risks. What we can do is try to limit our risks.

The bigger problem is that one person’s risky behavior affects not only themselves but everyone else. So, the odds are magnified for everyone. As Americans, we are gambling and losing. We have more cases per capita and more deaths than any other developed country. To be truly patriotic Americans, we all should wear masks and do everything we can to limit the risks and keep our country safe.